Time Will Tell: What’s Next for Prediction Markets, Volume Growth Strategies, Continuous Information Perps, and Capitalizing on Momentum

Prediction markets have transitioned from a niche experiment to a durable financial primitive, validated by their breakout role in the 2024 U.S. election and their ability to sustain volumes well above pre-election levels. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have become central players, backed by hundreds of millions in capital and favorable regulatory shifts, while startups experiment with new formats such as social trading bots, swipe-based apps, and continuous information stream perps. This report explores why retail speculators remain the essential growth engine, why volumes will continue to concentrate in fat head markets such as politics, sports, and entertainment, and why long tail user-generated markets are unlikely to scale. It also analyzes the liquidity challenges inherent to binary outcomes, the potential of leverage and perps to unlock growth, and the battle between incumbents and startups for control of distribution and user engagement. Together these dynamics illustrate how prediction markets are evolving into one of crypto’s most promising verticals, with incumbents set to dominate backend infrastructure and startups best positioned to win the user-facing layer.