Data centres could generate $5–$11bn in annual premiums: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the data centre opportunity for the insurance sector could generate $5–$11 billion in annual premiums over the next several years, with an annual broker revenue opportunity of roughly $250 million–$1 billion.

Analysts said discussions around data centre opportunities within the insurance sector have increased since Aon highlighted a potential $10 billion in new premium volume in 2026 during its 3Q25 earnings call, representing 2% growth for the ~$550 billion commercial P&C industry.

Additionally, WTW noted that insurance for data centre build-outs could represent a low-single-digit to mid-single-digit percentage of related capital expenditures.

During Aon’s Navigating Market Cycles panel, Rachel Turk, Chief Underwriting Officer at Lloyd’s, highlighted the massive opportunity in data centres while emphasising that if the industry cannot quickly provide solutions to meet the needs of technology giants, these risks could move into captives.

Willis has recently established a dedicated Data Centre Industry Practice for Asia, led by Lay See Ong. Similarly, The Fidelis Partnership has launched a new consortium targeting risks associated with the construction of artificial intelligence (AI) data centres.

Goldman Sachs’ analysis shows that the bulk of the opportunity lies in the construction/build-out phase (~75%+) in U.S. admitted markets. Analysts noted that while the range of outcomes remains wide, Goldman Sachs’ discussions with industry participants indicate that insurance activity is picking up as most major data centre projects are still in the planning phase.

Brokers and insurers focused on global large-account and complex risks are expected to be the primary beneficiaries.

At this stage, estimates are most concrete for insurance brokers, as market share is expected to be more concentrated. Goldman Sachs has raised brokerage organic growth estimates by up to 50bps for certain companies, with RYAN and AON (on the Americas Buy Conviction List) as the largest beneficiaries, followed by WTW and MMC. This incremental benefit reflects the lower end of Goldman Sachs’ estimated potential gross benefits, given project uncertainties and some growth implicitly captured in prior estimates.

Among underwriters, analysts see reinsurers ACGL, RNR, and FIHL as having the strongest appetite to write this business, while CB, AIG, and TRV could have the strongest appetite among primary insurers.

Regarding data centre spending, Goldman Sachs’ outlook is robust, with 20%+ growth expected from 2025–2027 for both data centre construction and Hyperscaler capital expenditures. However, broader market estimates are wide, move quickly, and different data sources paint varying pictures of acceleration and deceleration.