CatIQ lifts Ontario & Quebec ice storm loss estimate to CAD 490m

CatIQ, a Toronto-based independent catastrophe insurance data provider and subsidiary of PERILS, has released its fourth industry loss estimate for the ice storm that affected Ontario and Quebec from March 28 to 31, 2025, raising losses to CAD 490 million.

The event involved a prolonged period of wintry precipitation across southern Ontario and Quebec, with parts of the Kawarthas experiencing up to 35 hours of freezing rain and ice accretion of up to 25 mm. The accumulated ice placed significant strain on power lines, trees, and other surfaces, causing extensive damage and leaving hundreds of thousands of customers without power. In the hardest-hit areas, outages persisted for weeks.

This updated estimate provides a snapshot of the insurance market six months after the event. The figure covers property (commercial and residential) and vehicle (motor) claims, including additional loss adjustment expenses.

The loss estimate marks an increase from CatIQ’s three-month estimate of CAD 416 million issued in early July, driven by continued growth in Ontario personal lines.

The initial estimate, released on April 30, was CAD 342 million, followed by a second estimate of CAD 402 million on May 15.

CatIQ will provide a fifth update of the market loss from the ice storm on March 31, 2026, one year after the event end date.

Caroline Floyd, Director of CatIQ, commented, “Continued creep in the personal line losses highlights the extent of damage across south-central Ontario and southern Quebec, particularly for those homes and vacation properties in more remote areas. Notably, growth in estimated incurred costs continues to outstrip growth in the number of claims, suggesting claims are proving more expensive than initially anticipated in some cases. Certainly, the extent of the increase at this 6-month mark is somewhat out of the norm, but it seems more reasonable when one considers that many of the affected properties may be seasonal access, leaving property owners to only discover the extent of damage during the summer months.

“It’s possible additional challenges of access – be it delays caused by damage to infrastructure, or just the need to move resources over larger distances – could be exacerbating cost increases. With approximately two-thirds of personal claims now estimated to be closed, it will be interesting to see if we find additional growth between now and the one-year estimate.”